There is something peculiar about people living in Florida. We watch tropical storms. I have a handy little widget on my Macintosh, that allows me to check NOAA's Atlantic Basin Storm Tracking Maps. We watched Katina crash through South Florida and go out into the Gulf on Thursday, August 25th. Since Katina came ashore on the Gulf Coast on August 29th, Leo blew itself out in the Atlantic. At present Maria is heading North into the cold waters and the experts assume that she is no threat. September and October have historically been active months for storms, the hurricane season is not over yet.
It has been stated that global warming will generate more hurricanes. Of all the popular ideas about changes in the weather this may be this most controversial. There are so many factors involved in the generation of hurricanes.
So I offer this brief outline of the controversy. First, I believe the argument that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps energy is valid, and the evidence that we are seeing the effects of this phenomenon in atmospheric warming is convincing. Hurricanes are produced by warm water, and there is evidence that over all ocean water temperatures have increased.
However it is a fact that in the tropics the water is very warm during the summer. Hurricanes existed before homo sapiens, and every summer for millennia there have been several tropical storms that came ashore on the coast line of the Western Hemisphere. Tropical storms are common to Asia as well.
Furthermore, the Gulf of Mexico is relatively shallow, and it gets over 300 days of tropical sun, it would be warm even if there were no carbon build up in the atmosphere. (Katrina traveled over water that at least 88° F.) So on the one hand hurricanes are naturally occurring tropical storms and the Gulf of Mexico is ideal location for tropical storms to become intense and very large. And on the other hand the atmosphere and the oceans are warming, making hurricane generation more intense.
It would be a stretch to argue that any particular hurricane is the result of global warming. The evidence does not support such a conclusion. But the combination of atmosphere warming and ocean warming lead to inescapable conclusion that we will have more large, intense hurricanes in the years ahead. Ruth Curry, research specialist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.writes " In order to form, a hurricane must have ocean temperature of at least 80 degrees down to a depth of 164 feet. Sea surface temperatures all over the tropics are running 1.8 to 3.6 degrees above normal. This is due to global warming."
What must we do? In Florida the building codes were changed after Hurricane Andrew, the first storm to record Category Five winds to hit the United States.* Those newer buildings have stood against the strong hurricanes that come ashore in 2004. Older, less well built structures were destroyed. We can plan coastal communities with a view toward withstanding strong hurricanes. FEMA should not spend disaster money to rebuild the same kinds of structures that were wiped out by storm surge and strong winds. We must require cities to have disaster plans and demand that any evacuation plans include how to aid the poor, the aged, those with small children, and those with medical needs.
We must work to address the question of global warming, restricting and eventually reversing carbon build up into the atmosphere. But for the time being this will not reverse the trend toward intense storms. That would require a radical turn in policy, pursued over many decades. It is sobering to read Roddy Scheer who writes "according to UN estimates, the Kyoto treaty, if fully implemented, would reduce the projected temperature rise of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by only 0.1 degree over the next century.
The consequences of global warming include radical changes to our environment including rising seas, changes in rain patterns, and intensification of both summer and winter storms. It is absurd to talk about love for Mother Nature, or advocating respect for the interdependent web of existence of which we are a part while pursuing policies that fundamentally alter our environment, endanger wild life, undermine agriculture and change weather patterns.
*(Hurricane Gilbert which hit Jamaica and Mexico had been the Category Five on record. Hurricane Camile which hit the Gulf Central Coast in 1962 and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which came ashore in Palm Beach Country, Florida in 1935 were probably Category Five hurricanes but they blew before we had instruments to measure such high atmosphere wind intensity.)
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